Handicapping Baseball Totals
Also known as over/under betting, this type of wager is available on almost any sport you can think of: football, basketball, baseball, hockey and soccer to name a few. Hockey, as we explain in. Betting on football consists of many different types of wagers. One of the most popular types of football wagers is the Totals, also known as the Over/Under. However, don't let the simplicity of.
Baseball has its own key numbers that, though not as strong as three is, certainly need to be considered when handicapping totals. Almost a third of all games end with totals of seven, nine or 11. Calculator Asian handicap (AH) in sports betting. Automated Asian total calc for free online. How to calculate expected return of bets? ♦First Pitch 7:00 PM EST - Get the Information You Need to Make Money Playing on Baseball Totals. MLB Tuesday Top Total.
The table below shows the most common final combined scores for nearly 32,000 MLB games. This information is useful for those making wagers on the diamond. It allows them to see how often each number hits.
MLB Key Numbers For Handicapping & Making Bets on Baseball Totals
“Runs” represents the final score of each game. The “#” representing how many times that has been the final score. And, “%”shows the percentage of the games that have hit that mark.
It’s not surprising that 7, 9 and 5 are the most popular numbers. Evens get knocked down a bit because games can’t end in a tie. And, when you think about it, 7-0, 6-1, 5-2, and 4-3 are pretty common. Maybe the most surprising is 11 runs at almost 8% of all games, which seems like a high final score.
While looking through this past data, I came across the highest scoring game in recent history.
Handicapping Baseball Totals 2020
On August 12, 2008 the Boston Red Sox defeated the Texas Rangers 19-17 for a combined score of 36 runs. The game featured a ridiculous 37 total hits, 5 home runs, 4 errors, 11 different pitchers and six players with at least 3 RBI.
| Runs Scored | # Games | % of Total |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 3561 | 11.15% |
| 9 | 3301 | 10.33% |
| 5 | 3052 | 9.55% |
| 8 | 2492 | 7.80% |
| 11 | 2452 | 7.67% |
| 6 | 2283 | 7.15% |
| 10 | 2113 | 6.61% |
| 3 | 1969 | 6.16% |
| 13 | 1665 | 5.21% |
| 12 | 1567 | 4.90% |
| 4 | 1518 | 4.75% |
| 14 | 1093 | 3.42% |
| 15 | 1070 | 3.35% |
| 16 | 650 | 2.03% |
| 17 | 631 | 1.97% |
| 1 | 600 | 1.88% |
| 2 | 594 | 1.86% |
| 18 | 384 | 1.20% |
| 19 | 313 | 0.98% |
| 20 | 207 | 0.65% |
| 21 | 166 | 0.52% |
| 22 | 89 | 0.28% |
| 24 | 47 | 0.15% |
| 25 | 44 | 0.14% |
| 23 | 25 | 0.08% |
| 26 | 21 | 0.07% |
| 27 | 16 | 0.05% |
| 28 | 9 | 0.03% |
| 31 | 6 | 0.02% |
| 29 | 5 | 0.02% |
| 30 | 2 | 0.01% |
| 32 | 2 | 0.01% |
| 33 | 1 | 0.00% |
| 34 | 1 | 0.00% |
| 35 | 1 | 0.00% |
| 36 | 1 | 0.00% |
| 31,951 Total Games | ||
When studying the daily baseball lines you’ll see the over under commonly set at 7 or 9. Now you know why. What the books will do is skew the juice one way or the other. If you like the “over” 7 runs you might have to pay higher juice if the books are also leaning that way. That’s why when you check out our free picks you’ll also see the line listed next to any over/unders.
By setting the over/under line on a common score the books are risking more pushes. Those aren’t necessarily good for them since they can’t make any money off of the vig. Some books will take a riskier approach and go with a half point higher or lower with more vig. Since you can’t have a tie when it’s on a half run this causes more swings in the action. Provided the book can balance the wagers in accordance with the juice they set on each way.
Learn More
A Look At Other Sports
Introduction
The page will endeavor to give the recreational baseball bettor advice on the various bets. I have no handicapping skill in baseball whatsoever, so the best I can do is steer you towards the best type of bets. There are three primary ways to bet on baseball, as follows.
- Money line: Bet on which team will win.
- Total: Bet on whether the total number of runs will fall above or below a stated number, usually between 7 and 12.
- Run line: Similar to a bet against the spread in football or basketball. However, in baseball the better team is always favored by 1.5. If the money line indicates neither team is favored, then either team could be the favored team.
Source of Data
Free Handicapping Picks
The data this analysis is based on is from the Major League Baseball games played over the 2016 and 2017 seasons. I had to remove two games because of incomplete data. The total number of games this page is based on is 4,929.
Fun Facts
The following table shows the average number of runs, hits, errors.
MLB Averages 2016-2017
| Item | Away | Home | Total1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Runs | 4.47 | 4.64 | 9.10 |
| Hits | 8.71 | 8.64 | 17.34 |
| Errors | 0.58 | 0.58 | 1.16 |
| Total | 13.76 | 13.87 | 27.61 |
Notes
1. Totals may not appear to agree with sum of the parts, due to rounding.
Money Line Bets
When it comes to betting money lines in baseball, or any sports bet for that matter, what is number of basis points, or 'cents' between the lines of the two teams. For example, a 10-cent set of lines would be +120/-130 or +105/+105. Following is the theoretical house edge by number of cents in the lines, assuming the probability of each team winning is close to 50%.
- 10 cents: 2.38%
- 15 cents: 3.49%
- 20 cents: 4.55%
As of this writing (Sept. 20, 2018) here are which sports book groups offer which sets of money line bets in baseball.
- 10-cent lines: Westgate, William Hill, South Point, Stations, CG Technology, Golden Nugget, Jerry's Nugget, Boyd
- 15-cent lines: Stratosphere, Caesars, Wynn
- 20-cent lines: MGM/Mirage, Treasure Island
Home or Road Teams
I show money line bets on road teams perform slightly better than home teams. To be specific, I show the house edge to be 0.3% less on road teams than home teams. This is well within the margin of error, so I wouldn't put much stock in this difference.
Favorite or Underdog
Not surprisingly, I show money line bets on underdogs perform better than favorites. This seems to be true in every sport. To be specific, I show the house edge to be 0.70% less on underdogs compared to favorites.
Total Bets
The following table shows the number of times the total runs was over, under, and exactly on the over/under line. The return column shows the house edge, assuming a 20-cent line. Note that the house edge is 2.25% less on Under bets.
Over/Under Bets in MLB
| Outcome | Number | Probability | House Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 2315 | 46.97% | 5.45% |
| Under | 2373 | 48.14% | 3.20% |
| Push | 241 | 4.89% | |
| Total | 4929 | 100.00% |
Run Line Bets
Based on sets of 20-cent lines, I show the expected return laying 1.5 runs on the favorite is 96.90% and buying them on the underdog is 96.34%. This difference of 0.56%, favoring laying the 1.5 runs, is within the margin of error.
Baseball Handicapping Sites
Internal Links
- Obscure Topics in Betting Major League Baseball — These are some tables I didn't bother to update when I updated this page with new data. Use the tables in this page, based on data from 2000 to 2009, with a grain of salt.
- Betting the NFL In-depth look at betting professional football.
- Betting the NBA In-depth look at betting professional basketball.
- Appendix 1 Comparative study on who has the best lines in Vegas.
- Appendix 2 Various topics in sports betting.
- Appendix 3 List of Las Vegas sports book families.
- Appendix 4 Fair prices to buy and sell points in the NFL.
- Appendix 5 Explores sports futures in greater depth.
- Appendix 6 Lost and expired tickets.
- Appendix 7 Companion to appendix 1, showing NFL money line pairs from several Internet sportbooks.
- Appendix 8 Comparitive study on who has the best lines offshore.
- Appendix 9 Companion to appendix 8, showing NFL money line pairs from offshore sportbooks.
- NFL Teasers.
- Total number of kickoffs in Super Bowl 43. Were there 9 or 10?
- Vegas sports book comparison at WizardOfVegas.com. Who offers what odds on parlays and teasers, as well as rebate percentages.
Written by: Michael Shackleford