2018 Sleepers Fantasy Baseball
True story: I looked at my fantasy baseball sleepers from last year and decided since I wrote a Ryan Yarbrough sleeper last year, I wouldn’t write one this year, and instead focused on Chris Bassitt, who I wrote as a ‘guy to target’ but necessarily a full sleeper post.Coming off such a weird year, it’s honestly difficult to have my opinions on starters change that dramatically. Which unheralded players could break out this season? Cockcroft highlights the ones to have on your radar. 2018 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: All-Breakout Team Catcher: Chance Sisco, Orioles. Sisco was an accomplished hitter in the minors (.311/.390/.426) and had a nice little 10-game major league debut. Hit me up on Twitter or email me at fantasyaid1@gmail.com.
- Fantasy Baseball Sleepers 2018
- 2018 Sleepers Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings
- 2018 Sleepers Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
Sep 3, 2019; Bronx, NY, USA; New York Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez (24) hits a two run home run against the Texas Rangers during the first inning at Yankee Stadium.
Over the last three seasons, we've seen 75 starting pitchers drafted in the top 100 in ADP, an average of 25 per season. How many of those have finished as a top-100 overall player that season? 10 in each season, or just 40%. 22 of those 75 finished outside of the top-250, so you were only slightly more likely to get a top-100 player from your early-round pitcher as you were to get a player who wasn't worth rostering in most leagues.
Pitching is always a risky investment, in other words. Of course, there's a big difference between a pitcher drafted in the first two rounds and ones drafted in the eighth or ninth round, right? Well, last season, only two pitchers drafted in the top two rounds ended up finishing inside of the top-100 players, though six out of eight managed it in 2019 and 2018, including five top-36 finishes.
Which is to say, while pitching is a risky investment, that risk doesn't typically rise with the cost. The most expensive are the most expensive because they are the rare pitchers who have both elite production and a track record of health to back it up; outside of the first few rounds is when you start to see the guys who could be aces, but who have one or more question marks around them.
If we consider a top-100 overall finish to be a 'hit' for a starting pitcher, here's the hit rate among pitchers based on NFC ADP round over the last three seasons:
- Rounds 1-2: 8/14 (57.1%)
- Rounds 3-4: 7/23 (30.4%)
- Rounds 5-6: 12/22 (54.5%)
- Rounds 7-8: 3/17 (17.6%)
And if we consider a top-50 finish a 'smash', here's what it looks like:
- Rounds 1-2: 7/14 (50.0%)
- Rounds 3-4: 6/23 (26.1%)
- Rounds 5-6: 6/22 (27.3%)
- Rounds 7-8: 2/17 (11.7%)
At least over the last three seasons, you had a worse chance of hitting on a starting pitcher in Rounds 3 and 4 than you did in Rounds 5 and 6, and your chances of getting a good return on your investment was well below 50% for all pitchers outside of the top 24. The hit and smash rate for hitters is higher at every point in the draft, too.
So, does that mean you should buck the trend of pushing pitchers up draft boards and focus on hitting early? Well, not necessarily -- early pitchers are better investments than later pitchers, after all, and you still need good pitchers to contend in Fantasy. However, it's worth remembering that, at least over the last three seasons, SP6-12 in ADP have been about as likely to hit as SP13-20, so it might be smarter to still treat the second tier of starters with more skepticism. That's not to say you should skip the Walker Buehler (18.3 overall) through Luis Castillo (30.8) tier in ADP, but that you should include the Zac Gallen (40.5) through Carlos Carrasco (59.8) group in that same tier.
And this may be more true for 2021 than any season ever, given how many more question marks we have at the position than usual. Pitching is always volatile, but now we're coming off a season where nobody threw more than 100 innings, including the post season, meaning there are significant workload concerns and sample-size issues across the board, in addition to the normal attrition rate at the position?
Was Trevor Bauer's breakout for real? Was Max Scherzer's inflated ERA a sign of the end of his run as a dominant starter? Was Ian Anderson's late-season run for real? What about Corbin Burnes? Those are all questions you'll have to have an answer for fairly early on in your drafts.
My ideal start would probably see me end up with one of the top three pitchers -- Jacob deGrom, Shane Bieber, and Gerrit Cole -- and then focus on hitter for a few rounds, before dipping back into the pitching pool in Round 4-8. But, you might find pitchers going off the board so fast this season that you can't help but invest early. At least now you know the risk you're taking on.
25. Sonny Gray
26. Dinelson Lamet
27. Kyle Hendricks
28. Max Fried
29. Zack Wheeler
30. Jose Berrios
31. Chris Paddack
32. Framber Valdez
33. Ian Anderson
34. Dylan Bundy
35. Jesus Luzardo
36. Charlie Morton
37. Lance McCullers
38. Sixto Sanchez
39. Julio Urias
40. Patrick Corbin
41. Sandy Alcantara
42. Kevin Gausman
43. Joe Musgrove
44. Pablo Lopez
45. Mike Soroka
46. German Marquez
47. Frankie Montas
48. Marco Gonzales
1. MacKenzie Gore, Padres
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2019: high Class A, Double-A
2019 minors: 9-2, 1.69 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 101 IP, 28 BB, 135 K
The left-hander was suspiciously bypassed for the Padres' postseason push, with some chatter about him possibly underachieving at the alternate training site. But there are no challengers to his top spot among pitching prospects, and with his high leg kick, big extension and deep arsenal of four plus pitches, he's well equipped to dominate.Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: fighting this spring
2. Ian Anderson, Braves
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2019: Double-A, Triple-A
2019 minors: 8-7, 3.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 135 2/3 IP, 65 BB, 172 K
2020 majors: 3-2, 1.95 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 32 1/3 IP, 14 BB, 42 K
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The No. 3 pick back in 2016 had mostly gathered detractors since then, but it all clicked for him at the alternate training site, where he refined his changeup into a true put-away pitch on the level of Luis Castillo. From his one-hit debut against the Yankees to his three scoreless playoff outings, he showed unusual confidence in a three-pitch mix that included a loopy curveball.Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: pencil him in
3. Sixto Sanchez, Marlins
Age (on opening day): 22
Where he played in 2019: high Class A, Double-A
2019 minors: 8-6, 2.76 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 114 IP, 21 BB, 103 K
2020 majors: 3-2, 3.46 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 39 IP, 11 BB, 33 K
The questions about Sanchez's strikeout potential persist, but he actually had a better swinging-strike rate in his major-league stint than Anderson and dominated the other two legs of the FIP triangle with an elite strike percentage and sinking 98 mph fastball. Those two skills will take him far even if he never fully develops the third.Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: pencil him in
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers 2018
4. Michael Kopech, White Sox
Age (on opening day): 24
Where he played in 2019: did not play -- injured
2018 minors: 7-7, 3.70 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 126 1/3 IP, 60 BB, 170 K
2018 majors: 1-1, 5.02 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 14 1/3 IP, 2 BB, 15 K
The prospect hype for Kopech has gone a bit stale because of some uneven minor-league performances followed by Tommy John surgery followed by his decision to opt out last year. His fastball was as breathtaking as ever in spring training, though, and he made huge strides in the control area prior to the 2018 promotion that ended with him hurting his elbow.
Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: fighting this spring
5. Nate Pearson, Blue Jays
Age (on opening day): 24
Where he played in 2019: high Class A, Double-A, Triple-A
2019 minors: 5-4, 2.30 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 101 2/3 IP, 27 BB, 119 K
2020 majors: 1-0, 6.00 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 18 IP, 13 BB, 16 K
Pearson was one of several high-profile pitching prospects who didn't quite pan out in 2020, his big fastball and wipeout slider failing to translate to whiffs as expected, but he ended on a high note, striking out five in two scoreless playoff innings following an IL stint. HIs careful handling to this point may hinder his progression some.Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: fighting this spring
6. Tarik Skubal, Tigers
Age (on opening day): 24
Where he played in 2019: high Class A, Double-A
2019 minors: 6-8, 2.42 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 122 2/3 IP, 37 BB, 179 K
2020 majors: 1-4, 5.63 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 32 IP, 11 BB, 37 K
Skubal's secondary pitches are a little underdeveloped since he was able to dominate using mostly his fastball in the minors, notably averaging 17.4 K/9 in nine Double-A starts. But he gained confidence in changeup during his major-league stint and ended it on a high note. The tools are there.Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: pencil him in
7. Casey Mize, Tigers
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2019: high Class A, Double-A
2019 minors: 8-3, 2.55 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 109 1/3 IP, 23 BB, 106 K
2020 majors: 0-3, 6.99 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 28 1/3 IP, 13 BB, 26 K
Mize's debut in 2020 was memorable only because of how unimpressive it was, and despite him being the first pick in 2018, many evaluators aren't extending the same grace to him that they are to, say, Nate Pearson. His pitches are impressive individually, but since they're all variations of a fastball (splitter, cutter, etc.), he may need to go back to the lab for more.Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: fighting this spring
8. Matt Manning, Tigers
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2019: Double-A
2019 minors: 11-5, 2.56 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 133 2/3 IP, 38 BB, 148 K
The third of the Tigers' big pitching prospects is the most conventional and the favorite of some evaluators, but a forearm strain prevented him from debuting alongside the other two. Blessed with height and extension as the son of an NBA player, his high-90s fastball and downer curve have made him a consistent bat-misser in the minors.Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: midseason hopeful
9. Logan Gilbert, Mariners
Age (on opening day): 23
Where he played in 2019: low Class A, high Class A, Double-A
2019 minors: 10-5, 2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 135 IP, 33 BB, 165 K
Gilbert dominated across three levels in 2019, which might have positioned him to debut if he had a better team or a longer schedule to work with in 2020. His velocity has picked up since signing and plays up because of the extension on his 6-foot-6 frame, but it's his four pitches and command of each that make him largely foolproof.Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: midseason hopeful
10. Spencer Howard, Phillies
Age (on opening day): 24
2018 Sleepers Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings
Where he played in 2019: Rookie, high Class A, Double-A
2019 minors: 3-1, 2.03 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 71 IP, 16 BB, 94 K
2020 majors: 1-2, 5.92 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 24 1/3 IP, 10 BB, 23 K
Howard had barely played above A-ball prior to his debut, and while his velocity was down in 2020, his slider still played up nicely, presenting a path to success even if his development slows from here. He was shut down early with a stiff shoulder, too, so it's likely we weren't even seeing him operate at full capacity.Scott's 2021 Fantasy impact: pencil him in
2018 Sleepers Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
So which 2021 Fantasy baseball sleepers should you snatch in your draft? And which undervalued first baseman can help you win a championship? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy baseball rankings for every single position, all from the model that called Will Smith's huge breakout last season, and find out.